The '''Valence effect''' in [[prediction]] is the tendency for people to overestimate the likelihood of good [[things]] happening rather than bad things. Valence refers to the positive or negative [[emotion]]al charge related to a given [[contingency]]. In one [[experiment]], participants assigned a higher [[probability]] to picking a card that had a smiling face on its reverse side than one which had a frowning face.[1] Additionally, some have reported a valence effect when predictions demonstrate the likelihood of positive events happening to ourselves [[relative]] to others and is an example of self-serving bias. | The '''Valence effect''' in [[prediction]] is the tendency for people to overestimate the likelihood of good [[things]] happening rather than bad things. Valence refers to the positive or negative [[emotion]]al charge related to a given [[contingency]]. In one [[experiment]], participants assigned a higher [[probability]] to picking a card that had a smiling face on its reverse side than one which had a frowning face.[1] Additionally, some have reported a valence effect when predictions demonstrate the likelihood of positive events happening to ourselves [[relative]] to others and is an example of self-serving bias. |