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[[Image:lighterstill.jpg]][[Image:Valence.jpg|right|frame]]
[[Image:lighterstill.jpg]][[Image:Valence.jpg|right|frame]]
The '''Valence effect''' in [[prediction]] is the tendency for people to overestimate the likelihood of good [[things]] happening rather than bad things. Valence refers to the positive or negative [[emotion]]al charge related to a given [[contingency]]. In one [[experiment]], participants assigned a higher [[probability]] to picking a card that had a smiling face on its reverse side than one which had a frowning face.[1] Additionally, some have reported a valence effect when predictions demonstrate the likelihood of positive events happening to ourselves [[relative]] to others and is an example of self-serving bias.
The '''Valence effect''' in [[prediction]] is the tendency for people to overestimate the likelihood of good [[things]] happening rather than bad things. Valence refers to the positive or negative [[emotion]]al charge related to a given [[contingency]]. In one [[experiment]], participants assigned a higher [[statistics|probability]] to picking a card that had a smiling face on its reverse side than one which had a frowning face.[1] Additionally, some have reported a valence effect when predictions demonstrate the likelihood of positive events happening to ourselves [[relative]] to others and is an example of self-serving bias.
The result of valence effects may be called [[wishful thinking]]. However, in some cases, positive outcome bias may actually alter events in some way so that it indeed results in a positive outcome. Examples of this have been known to occur in [[war]], when commanding officers have inspired their soldiers such that they are able to emerge victorious.
The result of valence effects may be called [[wishful thinking]]. However, in some cases, positive outcome bias may actually alter events in some way so that it indeed results in a positive outcome. Examples of this have been known to occur in [[war]], when commanding officers have inspired their soldiers such that they are able to emerge victorious.