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==Informal prediction from hypothesis==

==Informal prediction from hypothesis==

Outside the rigorous [[context]] of [[science]], prediction is often confused with informed guess or opinion.

Outside the rigorous [[context]] of [[science]], prediction is often confused with informed guess or opinion.

Some fields of science are notorious for the difficulty of accurate prediction and forecasting, such as software reliability, natural disasters, pandemics, demography, [[population]] dynamics and meteorology.

Some fields of science are notorious for the difficulty of accurate prediction and forecasting, such as software reliability, natural disasters, pandemics, demography, [[population]] dynamics and meteorology.

==Example of scientific hypothesis and prediction==

==Example of scientific hypothesis and prediction==

In the 1840s the renowned Hungarian physician [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ignaz_Semmelweis Ignaz Semmelweis] noticed that women giving birth in the Vienna lying-in hospital were dying in one building, but surviving in another.

In the 1840s the renowned Hungarian physician [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ignaz_Semmelweis Ignaz Semmelweis] noticed that women giving birth in the Vienna lying-in hospital were dying in one building, but surviving in another.

Upon considering the cause, he found that the surviving women were attended by midwives and not by student physicians. Thus he proposed the [[hypothesis]] that the physicians were a factor in the deaths. This proposition impelled Semmelweis to refine the factor. What was the difference between the midwives and the doctors? After more [[thought]], Semmelweis decided that the cadavers which the student doctors were touching must be part of the factor.

Upon considering the cause, he found that the surviving women were attended by midwives and not by student physicians. Thus he proposed the [[hypothesis]] that the physicians were a factor in the deaths. This proposition impelled Semmelweis to refine the factor. What was the difference between the midwives and the doctors? After more [[thought]], Semmelweis decided that the cadavers which the student doctors were touching must be part of the factor.

What could the doctors do to avoid the factor? Semmelweis predicted that, if the doctors were to wash their hands, then the cadaver factor would be avoided. Semmelweis therefore instructed the student doctors to wash their hands, and the women who were attended by the doctors survived. Thus his prediction was successful, and his hypothesis was validated. (Semmelweis, 1861. The Etiology, Understanding, and Prophylaxis of Childbed Fever)

What could the doctors do to avoid the factor? Semmelweis predicted that, if the doctors were to wash their hands, then the cadaver factor would be avoided. Semmelweis therefore instructed the student doctors to wash their hands, and the women who were attended by the doctors survived. Thus his prediction was successful, and his hypothesis was validated. (Semmelweis, 1861. The Etiology, Understanding, and Prophylaxis of Childbed Fever)

Other examples abound in the history of science, ranging from expected predictions which did not occur (such as the [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michelson-Morley_experiment Michelson-Morley experiment]) to new and [[radical]] predictions which shockingly confirmed one theory over another (such as the bending of [[light]] around the sun seen in the 1919 eclipse, a prediction of [[Albert Einstein]]'s theory of [http://nordan.daynal.org/wiki/index.php?title=Relativity#GENERAL_RELATIVITY General relativity]).

Other examples abound in the history of science, ranging from expected predictions which did not occur (such as the [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michelson-Morley_experiment Michelson-Morley experiment]) to new and [[radical]] predictions which shockingly confirmed one theory over another (such as the bending of [[light]] around the sun seen in the 1919 eclipse, a prediction of [[Albert Einstein]]'s theory of [https://nordan.daynal.org/wiki/index.php?title=Relativity#GENERAL_RELATIVITY General relativity]).

==Vision and prophecy==

==Vision and prophecy==

In [[literature]], [[vision]] and [[prophecy]] are literary devices used to present a possible [[timeline]] of future [[events]]. They can be distinguished by vision referring to what an [[individual]] sees happen. The [[New Testament]] book of [[Book of Revelation|Revelation]] (Bible) thus uses vision as a literary device in this regard. It is also prophecy or prophetic literature when it is related by an individual in a sermon or other [[public]] forum.

In [[literature]], [[vision]] and [[prophecy]] are literary devices used to present a possible [[timeline]] of future [[events]]. They can be distinguished by vision referring to what an [[individual]] sees happen. The [[New Testament]] book of [[Book of Revelation|Revelation]] (Bible) thus uses vision as a literary device in this regard. It is also prophecy or prophetic literature when it is related by an individual in a sermon or other [[public]] forum.

[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Dickens Charles Dickens]' [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Christmas_Carol A Christmas Carol] also makes use of [[vision]] as a literary device. After Scrooge confronts the visions given to him by the Ghosts of Christmas Past, Present, and Yet to Come, he asks whether the future he has seen can be changed.[2] In other [[words]], he wants to know whether he change the outcome of the ghosts' prophecies. This question has also been addressed in many [[science fiction]] works, particularly those dealing with [[time travel]].

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Dickens Charles Dickens]' [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Christmas_Carol A Christmas Carol] also makes use of [[vision]] as a literary device. After Scrooge confronts the visions given to him by the Ghosts of Christmas Past, Present, and Yet to Come, he asks whether the future he has seen can be changed.[2] In other [[words]], he wants to know whether he change the outcome of the ghosts' prophecies. This question has also been addressed in many [[science fiction]] works, particularly those dealing with [[time travel]].

==Prediction in fiction==

==Prediction in fiction==

[[Fiction]] (especially [[fantasy]], forecasting and science fiction) often features instances of prediction achieved by unconventional means.

[[Fiction]] (especially [[fantasy]], forecasting and science fiction) often features instances of prediction achieved by unconventional means.

*In fantasy literature, predictions are often obtained through [[magic]] or [[prophecy]], sometimes referring back to old [[traditions]]. For example, in [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._R._R._Tolkien J. R. R. Tolkien's] [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lord_of_the_Rings The Lord of the Rings], many of the characters possess an awareness of events extending into the future, sometimes as prophecies, sometimes as more-or-less vague '[[feelings]]'. The character [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galadriel Galadriel], in addition, employs a water "mirror" to show images, sometimes of possible future events.

*In fantasy literature, predictions are often obtained through [[magic]] or [[prophecy]], sometimes referring back to old [[traditions]]. For example, in [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._R._R._Tolkien J. R. R. Tolkien's] [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lord_of_the_Rings The Lord of the Rings], many of the characters possess an awareness of events extending into the future, sometimes as prophecies, sometimes as more-or-less vague '[[feelings]]'. The character [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galadriel Galadriel], in addition, employs a water "mirror" to show images, sometimes of possible future events.

*In some of [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_K._Dick Philip K. Dick]'s stories, mutant [[humans]] called precogs can foresee the future (ranging from days to years). In the story called The Golden Man, an exceptional mutant can predict the future to an indefinite range (presumably up to his [[death]]), and thus becomes completely non-human, an [[animal]] that follows the predicted paths [[automatic]]ally.

*In some of [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_K._Dick Philip K. Dick]'s stories, mutant [[humans]] called precogs can foresee the future (ranging from days to years). In the story called The Golden Man, an exceptional mutant can predict the future to an indefinite range (presumably up to his [[death]]), and thus becomes completely non-human, an [[animal]] that follows the predicted paths [[automatic]]ally.

*In the [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundation_series Foundation] series by [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isaac_Asimov Isaac Asimov], a mathematician finds out that historical events (up to some detail) can be theoretically modelled using equations, and then spends years trying to put the [[theory]] in [[practice]]. The new science of [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_(fictional) psychohistory] founded upon his success can simulate [[history]] and extrapolate the present into the future.

*In the [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundation_series Foundation] series by [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isaac_Asimov Isaac Asimov], a mathematician finds out that historical events (up to some detail) can be theoretically modelled using equations, and then spends years trying to put the [[theory]] in [[practice]]. The new science of [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_(fictional) psychohistory] founded upon his success can simulate [[history]] and extrapolate the present into the future.

*In [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Herbert Frank Herbert]'s sequels to [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dune_(novel) Dune], his characters are dealing with the repercussions of being able to see the possible futures and select amongst them. Herbert sees this as a trap of stagnation, and his characters follow a Golden Path out of the trap.

*In [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Herbert Frank Herbert]'s sequels to [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dune_(novel) Dune], his characters are dealing with the repercussions of being able to see the possible futures and select amongst them. Herbert sees this as a trap of stagnation, and his characters follow a Golden Path out of the trap.

In [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ursula_K._Le_Guin Ursula K. Le Guin]'s [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Left_Hand_of_Darkness The Left Hand of Darkness], the humanoid inhabitants of planet Gethen have mastered the art of prophecy and routinely produce data on past, present or future events on request. In this story, this was a minor plot device.

In [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ursula_K._Le_Guin Ursula K. Le Guin]'s [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Left_Hand_of_Darkness The Left Hand of Darkness], the humanoid inhabitants of planet Gethen have mastered the art of prophecy and routinely produce data on past, present or future events on request. In this story, this was a minor plot device.

==Quote==

==Quote==

The [[universe]] is highly predictable only in the quantitative or [[gravity]]-measurement sense; even the primal [[physical]] [[force]]s are not responsive to linear gravity, nor are the higher [[mind]] [[meaning]]s and true [[spirit]] [[value]]s of [[ultimate]] universe realities. [[Qualitatively]], the universe is not highly predictable as regards new associations of [[force]]s, either [[physical]], [[mind]]al, or [[spiritual]], although many such combinations of energies or forces become partially predictable when subjected to critical observation. When [[matter]], [[mind]], and [[spirit]] are unified by [[creature]] [[personality]], we are unable fully to predict the [[decisions]] of such a [[freewill]] [[being]].[http://www.urantia.org/cgi-bin/webglimpse/mfs/usr/local/www/data/papers?link=http://mercy.urantia.org/papers/paper12.html&file=/usr/local/www/data/papers/paper12.html&line=145#mfs]

The [[universe]] is highly predictable only in the quantitative or [[gravity]]-measurement sense; even the primal [[physical]] [[force]]s are not responsive to linear gravity, nor are the higher [[mind]] [[meaning]]s and true [[spirit]] [[value]]s of [[ultimate]] universe realities. [[Qualitatively]], the universe is not highly predictable as regards new associations of [[force]]s, either [[physical]], [[mind]]al, or [[spiritual]], although many such combinations of energies or forces become partially predictable when subjected to critical observation. When [[matter]], [[mind]], and [[spirit]] are unified by [[creature]] [[personality]], we are unable fully to predict the [[decisions]] of such a [[freewill]] [[being]].[https://www.urantia.org/cgi-bin/webglimpse/mfs/usr/local/www/data/papers?link=https://mercy.urantia.org/papers/paper12.html&file=/usr/local/www/data/papers/paper12.html&line=145#mfs]

==References==

==References==

# Stevenson, Howard, ed. DO LUNCH OR BE LUNCH. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1998

# Stevenson, Howard, ed. DO LUNCH OR BE LUNCH. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1998

# Michael Patrick Hearn, The annotated Christmas carol: a Christmas carol in prose / by Charles Dickens, W. W. Norton and Co., 2004, ISBN 0-393-05158-7

# Michael Patrick Hearn, The annotated Christmas carol: a Christmas carol in prose / by Charles Dickens, W. W. Norton and Co., 2004, ISBN 0-393-05158-7

==External links==

==External links==

[http://www.dmoz.org/Society/Future/Predictions/ Predictions] at the Open Directory Project

[https://www.dmoz.org/Society/Future/Predictions/ Predictions] at the Open Directory Project

[[Category: History]]

[[Category: History]]

[[Category: Statistics]]

[[Category: Statistics]]

[[Category: Mathematics]]

[[Category: Mathematics]]

[[Category: Paranormal]]

[[Category: Paranormal/TeaM]]