Changes

Currently, world civilization is in a stage that has created what may be characterized as an [[industrial society]], superseding the [[agrarian society]] that preceded it. Some futurists believe that civilization is undergoing another transformation, and that world society will become a so-called [[informational society]].

Currently, world civilization is in a stage that has created what may be characterized as an [[industrial society]], superseding the [[agrarian society]] that preceded it. Some futurists believe that civilization is undergoing another transformation, and that world society will become a so-called [[informational society]].

Some environmental scientists see the world entering a [[Planetary Phase of Civilization]], characterized by a shift away from independent, disconnected nation-states to a world of increased global connectivity with worldwide institutions, environmental challenges, economic systems, and consciousness.[http://www.orionsociety.org/pages/oo/sidebars/America/Rockefeller.html Orion] Thoughts on America[http://www.kosmosjournal.org/kjo/backissue/s2006/laszlo-1.shtml Kosmos Journal Paths to Planetary Civilization. In an attempt to better understand what a Planetary Phase of Civilization might look like in the current context of declining natural resources and increasing consumption, the [[Global scenario group]] used [[scenario analysis]] to arrive at three archetypal futures: Barbarization, in which increasing conflicts result in either a fortress world or complete societal breakdown; Conventional Worlds, in which market forces or [[Policy reform]] slowly precipitate more sustainable practices; and a Great Transition, in which either the sum of fragmented [[Eco-Communalism]] movements add up to a sustainable world or globally coordinated efforts and initiatives result in a new sustainability paradigm.http://www.gtinitiative.org/documents/Great_Transitions.pdf

Some environmental scientists see the world entering a [[Planetary Phase of Civilization]], characterized by a shift away from independent, disconnected nation-states to a world of increased global connectivity with worldwide institutions, environmental challenges, economic systems, and consciousness.[https://www.orionsociety.org/pages/oo/sidebars/America/Rockefeller.html Orion] Thoughts on America[https://www.kosmosjournal.org/kjo/backissue/s2006/laszlo-1.shtml Kosmos Journal Paths to Planetary Civilization. In an attempt to better understand what a Planetary Phase of Civilization might look like in the current context of declining natural resources and increasing consumption, the [[Global scenario group]] used [[scenario analysis]] to arrive at three archetypal futures: Barbarization, in which increasing conflicts result in either a fortress world or complete societal breakdown; Conventional Worlds, in which market forces or [[Policy reform]] slowly precipitate more sustainable practices; and a Great Transition, in which either the sum of fragmented [[Eco-Communalism]] movements add up to a sustainable world or globally coordinated efforts and initiatives result in a new sustainability paradigm.https://www.gtinitiative.org/documents/Great_Transitions.pdf

The [[Kardashev scale]] classifies civilizations based on their level of technological advancement, specifically measured by the amount of energy a civilization is able to harness. The Kardashev scale makes provisions for civilizations far more technologically advanced than any currently known to exist. ''(see also: [[Civilizations and the Future]], [[Space civilization]])''

The [[Kardashev scale]] classifies civilizations based on their level of technological advancement, specifically measured by the amount of energy a civilization is able to harness. The Kardashev scale makes provisions for civilizations far more technologically advanced than any currently known to exist. ''(see also: [[Civilizations and the Future]], [[Space civilization]])''

There have been many explanations put forward for the collapse of civilization.

There have been many explanations put forward for the collapse of civilization.

'''[[Edward Gibbon|Edward Gibbon's]]''' massive work ''"[[The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire]]"'' began an interest in the Fall of Civilizations, that had begun with the [[historical divisions]] of [[Petrarch]] [http://www.artsci.lsu.edu/voegelin/EVS/Panel72001.htm|Petrarch] between the [[Classical antiquity|Classical period]] of [[Ancient Greece]] and [[Rome]], the succeeding [[Middle Ages|Medieval Ages]], and the [[Renaissance]]. For Gibbon:-

'''[[Edward Gibbon|Edward Gibbon's]]''' massive work ''"[[The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire]]"'' began an interest in the Fall of Civilizations, that had begun with the [[historical divisions]] of [[Petrarch]] [https://www.artsci.lsu.edu/voegelin/EVS/Panel72001.htm|Petrarch] between the [[Classical antiquity|Classical period]] of [[Ancient Greece]] and [[Rome]], the succeeding [[Middle Ages|Medieval Ages]], and the [[Renaissance]]. For Gibbon:-

''"The decline of Rome was the natural and inevitable effect of immoderate greatness. Prosperity ripened the principle of decay; the cause of the destruction multiplied with the extent of conquest; and, as soon as time or accident had removed the artificial supports, the stupendous fabric yielded to the pressure of its own weight. The story of the ruin is simple and obvious; and instead of inquiring why the Roman Empire was destroyed, we should rather be surprised that it has subsisted for so long."''[Gibbon, Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, 2nd ed., vol. 4, ed. by J. B. Bury (London, 1909), pp. 173-174.] Gibbon suggested the final act of the collapse of Rome was the fall of [[Constantinople]] to the [[Ottoman Turks]] in 1453 AD.

''"The decline of Rome was the natural and inevitable effect of immoderate greatness. Prosperity ripened the principle of decay; the cause of the destruction multiplied with the extent of conquest; and, as soon as time or accident had removed the artificial supports, the stupendous fabric yielded to the pressure of its own weight. The story of the ruin is simple and obvious; and instead of inquiring why the Roman Empire was destroyed, we should rather be surprised that it has subsisted for so long."''[Gibbon, Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, 2nd ed., vol. 4, ed. by J. B. Bury (London, 1909), pp. 173-174.] Gibbon suggested the final act of the collapse of Rome was the fall of [[Constantinople]] to the [[Ottoman Turks]] in 1453 AD.

* Societal responses to internal and environmental problems

* Societal responses to internal and environmental problems

'''[[Peter Turchin]]''' in his [http://www.eeb.uconn.edu/faculty/turchin/HistDyn.htm ''Historical Dynamics''] and '''[[Andrey Korotayev]]''' ''et al.'' in their [http://urss.ru/cgi-bin/db.pl?cp=&page=Book&id=37484&lang=en&blang=en&list=Found ''Introduction to Social Macrodynamics, Secular Cycles, and Millennial Trends''] suggest a number of mathematical models describing collapse of agrarian civilizations. For example, the basic logic of Turchin's "fiscal-demographic" model can be outlined as follows: during the initial phase of a sociodemographic [[Social cycle theory|cycle]] we observe relatively high levels of per capita production and consumption, which leads not only to relatively high [[population growth]] rates, but also to relatively high rates of surplus production. As a result, during this phase the population can afford to pay taxes without great problems,  

'''[[Peter Turchin]]''' in his [https://www.eeb.uconn.edu/faculty/turchin/HistDyn.htm ''Historical Dynamics''] and '''[[Andrey Korotayev]]''' ''et al.'' in their [https://urss.ru/cgi-bin/db.pl?cp=&page=Book&id=37484&lang=en&blang=en&list=Found ''Introduction to Social Macrodynamics, Secular Cycles, and Millennial Trends''] suggest a number of mathematical models describing collapse of agrarian civilizations. For example, the basic logic of Turchin's "fiscal-demographic" model can be outlined as follows: during the initial phase of a sociodemographic [[Social cycle theory|cycle]] we observe relatively high levels of per capita production and consumption, which leads not only to relatively high [[population growth]] rates, but also to relatively high rates of surplus production. As a result, during this phase the population can afford to pay taxes without great problems,  

the taxes are quite easily collectible, and the population growth is accompanied by the growth of state revenues. During the intermediate phase, the increasing [[overpopulation]] leads to the decrease of per capita production and consumption levels, it becomes more and more difficult to collect taxes, and state revenues stop growing, whereas the state expenditures grow due to the growth of the population controlled by the state. As a result, during this phase the state starts experiencing considerable fiscal problems. During the final pre-collapse phases the overpopulation leads to further decrease of per capita production, the surplus production further decreases, state revenues shrink, but the state needs more and more resources to control the growing (though with lower and lower rates) population. Eventually this leads to famines, epidemics, state breakdown, and demographic and civilization collapse (Peter Turchin. ''Historical Dynamics.'' Princeton University Press, 2003:121–127).

the taxes are quite easily collectible, and the population growth is accompanied by the growth of state revenues. During the intermediate phase, the increasing [[overpopulation]] leads to the decrease of per capita production and consumption levels, it becomes more and more difficult to collect taxes, and state revenues stop growing, whereas the state expenditures grow due to the growth of the population controlled by the state. As a result, during this phase the state starts experiencing considerable fiscal problems. During the final pre-collapse phases the overpopulation leads to further decrease of per capita production, the surplus production further decreases, state revenues shrink, but the state needs more and more resources to control the growing (though with lower and lower rates) population. Eventually this leads to famines, epidemics, state breakdown, and demographic and civilization collapse (Peter Turchin. ''Historical Dynamics.'' Princeton University Press, 2003:121–127).

'''Jeffrey A. McNeely''' has recently suggested that "A review of historical evidence shows that past civilizations have tended to over-exploit their forests, and that such abuse of important resources has been a significant factor in the decline of the over-exploiting society."<ref>McNeely, Jeffrey A. (1994) "Lessons of the past: Forests and Biodiversity" (Vol 3, No 1 1994. Biodiversity and Conservation)</ref>

'''Jeffrey A. McNeely''' has recently suggested that "A review of historical evidence shows that past civilizations have tended to over-exploit their forests, and that such abuse of important resources has been a significant factor in the decline of the over-exploiting society."<ref>McNeely, Jeffrey A. (1994) "Lessons of the past: Forests and Biodiversity" (Vol 3, No 1 1994. Biodiversity and Conservation)</ref>

'''[[Thomas Homer-Dixon]]''' in "[http://www.theupsideofdown.com ''The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization'']", considers that the fall in the [[EROEI|energy return on investments]]; the energy expended to energy yield ratio, is central to limiting the survival of civilizations. The degree of social complexity is associated strongly, he suggests, with the amount of disposable energy environmental, economic and technological systems allow. When this amount decreases civilizations either have to access new energy sources or they will collapse.

'''[[Thomas Homer-Dixon]]''' in "[https://www.theupsideofdown.com ''The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization'']", considers that the fall in the [[EROEI|energy return on investments]]; the energy expended to energy yield ratio, is central to limiting the survival of civilizations. The degree of social complexity is associated strongly, he suggests, with the amount of disposable energy environmental, economic and technological systems allow. When this amount decreases civilizations either have to access new energy sources or they will collapse.

==Criticism==

==Criticism==

==References==

==References==

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  See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Footnotes for a

  discussion of different citation methods and how to generate

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# Orion > Thoughts on America

# Orion > Thoughts on America

# Kosmos Journal Paths to Planetary Civilization

# Kosmos Journal Paths to Planetary Civilization

# http://www.gtinitiative.org/documents/Great_Transitions.pdf

# https://www.gtinitiative.org/documents/Great_Transitions.pdf

# http://www.artsci.lsu.edu/voegelin/EVS/Panel72001.htm|Petrarch

# https://www.artsci.lsu.edu/voegelin/EVS/Panel72001.htm|Petrarch

# ISBN 0195159543

# ISBN 0195159543

# ISBN 0192807285

# ISBN 0192807285